London Population’s Projected Growth: Patterns Across Boroughs

This is the second in a series of articles on London’s population, making use of the Office of National Statistics’ latest growth projections, published recently here. The focus is on variations across both inner and outer London boroughs.

Context: London and the rest of the country

London currently has a population of around 9.1 million, representing 15% of the total population of England and Wales. The Office of National Statistics (ONS) has published its latest projections which show that London’s population is expected to have grown by 6.7% by 2032, to around 9.7 million. Three points are worth noting here.

• first, London’s likely growth is just above the national average of 6.4%
• second, London’s growth will be driven solely by migration: a combination of internal migration from other parts of the UK and international migration. London’s ‘natural’ increase – births exceeding deaths – is already the lowest in the country, and negative in most boroughs.
• third, the ONS projects that the same will be true for the rest of the country by 2029: the deaths of baby boomers will exceed the number of births, and for the UK as a whole growth will depend on international migration.

Patterns Across Boroughs

Among the most striking things to be revealed by the latest statistics, however, is the sharp difference between London’s boroughs. They were established, as many of our readers will recall, sixty years ago on 1 April 1965. Much disgraceful politicking was involved in the carve-up of boroughs, and even today many of the results are difficult to comprehend. The borough of Bromley occupies 150 square kilometres, while Kensington and Chelsea occupies just over 12. Croydon has 400k inhabitants, while Kingston upon Thames has just 170k (and Kensington and Chelsea has the smallest population at 147k). Population densities vary among outer London boroughs between just over 2k per square kilometre in Bromley and Havering to nearly 9k in Haringey; and among inner London boroughs from 6k in Greenwich to 15k in Islington and over 16k in Tower Hamlets.

The latest projections show increases in population over the coming decade for all boroughs. But there are huge variations in the projected rates of growth. The average rate of 6.7% conceals huge differences between inner and outer London. The highest rate, over 20%, is shown in Tower Hamlets, while Enfield is projected to see growth of less than 1%. Only two outer London boroughs – Barnet and Hillingdon are projected to grow at 7%; while only one inner London borough – Lambeth – is projected to grow by less than 8%.

Demographic Profiles

The demographic profiles are also wildly different, not least by ethnicity. But here I shall focus on the differing age profiles, and the changes projected in them.

Children

There has been much comment about the decline in the birth rate, particularly across London, where in most boroughs the number of deaths now exceeds the number of births. But the proportion of the population comprising children varies hugely between boroughs, from 12.4% in Westminster to 25.9% in Barking and Dagenham. The lowest rates tend to be concentrated in inner London; but both Newham and Greenwich are around the median rate at 19%. All boroughs, however, are projected to see a fall in the proportions of the population comprising children over the next decade, with the highest fall in Richmond-on Thames, from 18.7% to 15.5%. By contrast, Westminster will fall only marginally, from 12.3% to 12.1%.

Working Age

The proportion of the population comprising working age people again varies significantly, between 63.6% in Havering and 78.0% in Tower Hamlets. The highest rates are all in inner London, with only Brent, Haringey and Waltham Forest reaching proportions of over 70%. Rates of growth over the next decade vary between 1% in Kensington and Chelsea, and 5% in Barking and Dagenham.

Pensioners

When we look at the proportion of people over state pension age, the pattern is not quite so clear. Overall, the proportions vary between 5.1% in Tower Hamlets, and 16.9% in Bromley. The lowest proportions tend to be in in inner London, but Kensington and Chelsea has 13.5%, and Camden and Westminster both have over 10%. Some outer London boroughs, including Barking and Dagenham, Haringey and Waltham Forest have proportions much lower than that. The projected growth in the proportion of pensioners over the next decade also varies hugely, from a rise of around 20% in Lambeth and Southwark to an actual fall of 2% in Havering.

Old Age Dependency Ratio

This ratio measures the number of people of state pension age per thousand people of working age. It ranges from 65 in Tower Hamlets to 264 in Bromley, with a pattern similar to that for people of pensionable age. The projections show that over the next decade, eight boroughs, including Ealing, Enfield and Lewisham as well as Lambeth will see rises of over 10%; but two, Havering and Barking and Dagenham, will see a fall of 1-2%.

Conclusion

The patterns and projections discussed here will have a significant impact on the new London Plan, and on Local Plans. They have already had a strong influence on the reforms to central Government funding for local authorities. We shall keep a close watch on them.

Michael Jubb
Chair, London Forum